【研究紹介】

Presenting land-use downscaling model at the Sixteenth Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) annual meeting

呉 文超　　国際農林水産業研究センター／研究員（統合評価モデル）

During 14-16^th November 2023, Dr. Wu participated in the sixteenth Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) annual meeting, which was held in Venice, Italy. IAMC is a network of research institutions focused on integrated assessment modeling and analysis. Established in 2007 at the IPCC’s request, it develops scenarios for climate modeling to support near-term and long-term studies, aiding scientific understanding and policy-making on climate and socio-economic challenges.

On 15^th November 2023, Dr. Wu presented research about high-resolution land use downscaling in the poster session. As part of the Digital Biosphere project and the AIM model development, Dr. Wu introduced the background, method, and results of the research project. During his presentation slot, he first explained the background of this initiative, which is aimed at improving the spatial resolution of the current land use representation in the AIM model, from half-degree to a higher resolution. Then he introduced the modeling framework, which is a hybrid approach consisting of a statistical method (multinomial logit regression) and a numerical method (cross-entropy minimization). This approach was determined by considering the main features of the AIM models to fit with other parts of the model.

Audiences from various research fields came to his poster and communicated with Dr. Wu. Notably, researchers who have been working on land use models in other integrated assessment modeling teams showed special interest in his presentation.

Researchers from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) pointed out that a critical improvement of this downscaling model, compared with the existing half-degree version, is that it contains the land use transition mechanism. They also suggested performing model validation. Land use modelers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) shared their experience of downscaling the MAgPIE output to the landscape resolution, by coupling with the SEALS model.

Figure 1. The 16^th IAMC annual conference

Figure 2. Post presentation at 16^th IAMC annual conference

Keywords: Land use model, climate change, IAMC, conference