【研究紹介】

Developing an agricultural production and land-use change model and examining the land-use scenarios under mitigation policies

　呉 文超　　国際農林水産業研究センター／任期付研究員（統合評価モデル）

　Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land-use (AFOLU) are in the pivotal position of global environmental change and sustainable development agenda. Humans mainly rely on agricultural production on land to produce food, fiber, and bioenergy. Over the years, such activities have resulted in significant changes to Earth’s surface. Land-use change is one of the focal elements in Earth System models since it strongly affects terrestrial biogeophysical and biogeochemical conditions, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. Future land-use change as a result of agricultural production and land-based climate mitigation determined by socio-economic conditions and climate policy could continue to exert an enormous impact on the global environment. Therefore, further understanding of the future land-use scenario, land-based mitigation potential, and implications on the Earth System induced by land-use change is urgently needed. This study aims to develop a global spatial agricultural production and land-use change model that could project future land-use change, consisting of a statistical land-use change model and an economical partial equilibrium agricultural market model. As a sub-project of Research Area 21A403, this study provides a tool to assess future land-based mitigation potentials and project future spatial land-use scenarios for the Earth System models as model inputs to evaluate the biogeophysical and biogeochemical impacts of human activity through land-use change.

Keywords：Agricultural production, land-use change, mitigation policy, socioeconomic scenarios

Reference papers：

• Hasegawa, Tomoko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Akihiko Ito, Kiyoshi Takahashi, and Toshihiko Masui. “Global Land-Use Allocation Model Linked to an Integrated Assessment Model.” Science of The Total Environment 580 (2017): 787–96.
• Ito, Akihiko, and Tomohiro Hajima. “Biogeophysical and Biogeochemical Impacts of Land-Use Change Simulated by MIROC-ES2L.” Progress in Earth and Planetary Science 7, no. 1 (2020): 54.
• Jun Furuya. “Development of an Economic Model for Evaluation of Climate Change in the Long-run for International Agriculture: EMELIA.” Technical Report. Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, 2020.