【研究紹介】Developing fire-vegetation model to estimate net fire impact on forest carbon uptake
- C分野
- C03班
朴 彩娟 産業技術総合研究所／研究員（環境動態評価）
Reducing greenhouse gas such as carbon dioxide is the most urgent environmental issue in the world. Afforestation, a land-based mitigation strategy, is one of the natural climate solutions and is getting more attention for its carbon uptake capacity. However, many researchers have overlooked the climate-driven risks in forest carbon stock. Particularly, climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of forest fires, which will have a significant impact on biomass carbon stock changes. This overlook leads to overestimation of the capacity of forest carbon capture, which could undermine net-zero plan. Therefore, to develop feasible and accurate climate change mitigation plan, it is important to estimate the amount of carbon uptake in forests considering climate feedback such as fire. For the carbon uptake estimation tool, terrestrial ecosystem models are used in the previous studies.
The Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace gases (VISIT) is one of the global terrestrial ecosystem models and a part of main simulators in ‘digital biosphere [21A403]’. However, VISIT has limitation in considering socioeconomic impact on fires and underestimates burnt area in Africa and South America. To overcome this shortcoming, a global fire model, Li-Park model, should be applied into VISIT. The Li-Park model was developed by the applicant.Hence, this study will [1] improve terrestrial ecosystem model by integrating Li-Park into VISIT, and [2] estimate and predict more accurate forest carbon uptake by simulating fire carbon emissions and post-fire carbon uptake which will vary by climate change scenario. This study will provide a tool to assess forestation climate change mitigation capacity, as well as contribute to digital biosphere (CO2 uptake) and global scenarios such as land use scenario and climate forcing feedbacks from fires.
キーワード：Wildfire, biomass burning, climate change, emission, land use change
参考文献：
Park, C. Y., Takahashi, K., Fujimori, S., Jansakoo, T., Burton, C., Huang, H., … & Hasegawa, T. (2024). Attributing human mortality from fire PM2. 5 to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 1-8.
論文掲載日：2024年10月21日